[Commentary] Will North Korea Collapse? |
Won Gon Park, Chair of EAI’s Center for North Korea Studies and Professor at Ewha Womans University, explores the potential for leadership collapse in North Korea under Kim Jong Un. He identifies three key challenges to regime stability: the expansion of marketization weakening state control, the erosion of ideological legitimacy among younger generations, and North Korea’s shift from unification policy to institutionalized hostility toward South Korea. However, Park contends that leadership collapse remains uncertain due to the regime’s entrenched coercive mechanisms, the absence of viable alternatives to Kim’s rule, and the high initial costs of collective resistance. While mass unrest is unlikely in the near term, he warns that deepening internal contradictions could accelerate instability, making leadership collapse a plausible, albeit unpredictable, scenario.
* Also available for download in Korean. |
[Commentary] Inter-Korean Relations in 2025: Prospects for Shifts in DPRK’s “Two Hostile States” Doctrine |
Sang Ki Kim, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, assesses that inter-Korean relations have reached their lowest point in 2025, largely due to DPRK’s “Two Hostile States” doctrine. Kim attributes the shift in DPRK’s ROK policy to several factors, including the perceived power imbalance between Seoul and Pyongyang, global developments such as the escalating U.S.-China rivalry and growing DPRK-Russia cooperation, and opposition to ROK’s North Korea policy. Kim urges Seoul to revise its DPRK policy by resolving hostility, re-establishing effective communication channels, understanding DPRK’s concerns about absorption unification, and enhancing diplomatic cooperation in response to evolving international dynamics.
* Also available for download in Korean. |
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