[Commentary]
Is a Surging Exchange Rate
North Korea’s Economic Achilles’ Heel? |
Byung-yeon Kim, Distinguished Professor at Seoul National University, examines North Korea’s recent economic performance, comparing it to the relative stability of its policies from 2013 to 2023, with a focus on exchange rate stability and price control. He analyzes the links between rising wages, surging exchange rates, and the regime’s attempts to roll back marketization through increased state intervention. Kim argues that future policy assessments must account for broader geopolitical factors, particularly North Korea’s involvement in the war in Ukraine, which could significantly affect its reliance on foreign currency and overall economic stability—ultimately shaping the regime’s long-term survival.
* Also available for download in Korean. |
[Commentary] North Korea’s Garbage-filled Balloons as a New Psychological Warfare |
Nilay Tavli (PhD student, Hanyang University) and Kyung-young Chung (Professor, Hanyang University) examine the evolving nature of North Korea's unconventional warfare tactics, focusing on the regime's recent use of balloon provocations and the resultant psychological threats to South Korea. They recommend Seoul enhance its defense capabilities and mitigate biological warfare risks, while curbing the distribution of leaflets to the North to alleviate tensions. The authors emphasize a shift in North Korea’s approach to inter-Korean relations and underscore the necessity for a proactive, comprehensive strategy to protect South Korea’s national security and public health. |
[Video Commentary] The Outlook of DPRK Foreign Policy in 2025 |
Won Gon Park, Chair of the EAI North Korea Studies Center, forecasts Pyongyang’s foreign relations in 2025, highlighting U.S.-China tensions, the Russia-Ukraine war, and potential U.S.-DPRK talks. He believes the U.S.-China rivalry won’t lead to the bloc system DPRK expects, while viewing Pyongyang’s military ties with Russia as a miscalculation. Park also predicts a Trump-Kim summit is unlikely due to nuclear disarmament disagreements, but sees the possibility of U.S.-DPRK talks centered on suspending ROK-U.S. joint military exercises and strategic assets in exchange for North Korea halting its ICBM and nuclear tests. |
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