Victor Cha, Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair at CSIS, predicts that North Korea will escalate provocations this year to influence the upcoming elections in the U.S. and South Korea. Yet emphasizing that these provocations will only be limited and tactical, Cha asserts that North Korea is not poised to initiate a full-scale war in the near future. Regarding the evolving DPRK-Russia relations, Cha cautions that the prolonged war in Ukraine and China's potential response to the deepening ties between Kim Jong Un and Putin will thrust North Korea into a pivotal position in reviving the DPRK-PRC-Russia trilateral relationship. Cha further warns that the revival of the "Cold War-like" bloc will undermine global governance and pose a threat to the international community.

■ Victor Cha is the Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Distinguished University Professor at Georgetown University.

■ Typeset by: Jisoo Park, Research Associate
    For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr